“The Canary of New York. (1) >
“So I would like you to postpone the listing of the Pennsylvania Railroad.”
A mansion in New York.
I was chatting alone with President Rockefeller. I stopped by JP Morgan Bank and said hello to Chairman Morgan first, so I had to start working in earnest.
“Hey, you’re living a very noisy life these days. As soon as you arrive, you’re talking about work, so there’s no such thing as a workaholic.”
“ah.”
“You’re not supposed to be like that for Morgan, are you?”
Rockefeller had a look of surprise.
“This is the first time I’ve seen a guy like me in my life.”
“sorry-“
“Don’t apologize because it’s a compliment. There’s a saying that people who don’t work should not eat. I support your sincere attitude.”
I sat down in a slumped seat.
It kind of felt like Rockefeller. It was as if he had even heard that Rockefeller was a pious and devout Baptist.
“By the way…..”
In an instant, the air in the room became heavy.
Rockefeller went into business mode.
“Pennsylvania Railroad listing postponed, what do you mean?”
“Literally. Shake McKinley to break the monopoly, and in the meantime, we have to build a stronghold. To do that, we need to put aside the breakwater that will cushion the imminent shock to the New York Stock Exchange.”
“That breakwater is a token of the railroad trusts.”
“That’s correct.”
“Well.”
President Rockefeller tapped the desk with his finger.
“If you came to me to delay the listing of the Pennsylvania Railroad, wouldn’t it be okay to have Morgan delayed the IPO of BNSF or the holding companies of the Great Northern Railroad?”
“Yes, JP Morgan Bank is going to make an announcement today at a public press conference.”
Rockefeller’s eyes frowned.
“Detroit, you don’t know why I went public so quickly.”
“Yeah, I think President McKinley pushed for an IPO because he wanted to get it done quickly before he brought out the antitrust mace.”
“Exactly. But.”
Rockefeller’s eyes sank deeply.
“The fact that you moved means that the anti-monopoly law controversy has risen to a dangerous level.”
“I expect that.”
“Huh, it seems that the fight with Texas this time has offended the intention of the White House. I wanted to secure the spindle tower over there.”
“You can do it later. It’s time for us to shake the White House first.”
“Hmm.”
In fact, Chairman Rockefeller knew all the rotating plates in the unit of fine particles. Looking at the Pennsylvania Railroad’s Japanese rail portfolio, she predicted that Detroit was going to do something.
It is a task to overthrow the entire Japanese archipelago.
Even during the Meiji Depression, in a situation where we had to do a war recovery project, the shock was beyond our imagination as we took over major national corporations at once.
Accounting books were scratched, and this quarter’s results were dark.
“Detroit, this quarter’s earnings shock was already planned. Standard Oil was originally going to throw the big bass before the Pennsylvania Railroad quarterly announcement.”
“Yeah, I know. There’s no better time to take a big bass than an Awning Shock quarter.”
In a nutshell, I was in a car accident, and even if I broke a few more bones, it wouldn’t hurt at all.
It was common sense in the New York Stock Exchange to throw a blow to the future with a big bass from the perspective of risk management after an earnings shock came on.
“I mean, even if you don’t have a big bath on the New York Stock Exchange, most companies are going to do it.”
“I know.”
“It seemed like that. If it was listed this time, wouldn’t it have been going to blow up the New York Stock Exchange with the listing issue of the Class 1 transcontinental railroad?”
Sharp.
“Yes.”
“Yeah, then, thanks to expectations, investors will flock like dogs in the earnings shock thanks to expectations, so you were probably trying to neutralize the shock and anticipation. You were thinking of slowly blowing the bubble out.”
Truly the king of oil.
As if I had opened my head to see my thoughts, my strategies poured out of my mouth one after another.
Even Rockefeller was one of the most nimble of business executives. Standard Oil was the result of using all of his accounting skills on the trust concept.
‘The extent of what is happening in Japan is to the level of being able to guess just by looking at the accounting documents.’
Rockefeller blew a cigar afterward.
“I should have a dinner with the president of the New York Stock Exchange. Probably, if the listings of Class 1 railroads are postponed or withdrawn one after another, expectations to support the New York Stock Exchange will disappear.”
“It’s oily.”
“If you don’t do this, you’ll suffocate. Or you’ll be lynched by investors.”
After all, the rice cake that will burn the New York Stock Exchange has oxidized to next year along with the ashes, so investors who have lost their wallets might come to the New York Stock Exchange with hammers and rifles.
It was necessary to put the police forces in advance and put in the police to stop the runaway in the New York Stock Exchange.
“So you?”
Rockefeller asked me, flapping Moody’s Pennsylvania Railroad Audit Report.
“How are you going to deal with it? In the end, the Awning Shock and Big Bass would have gone away without you having to tell them. The Class 1 Railroad would have been postponed if it didn’t work out after discussing it with Morgan.”
Even if I didn’t have to, America was walking into panic on its own.
There is no boom without a price in the first place.
In order to eat the fruits of the Japanese archipelago, it was a law that had to start with panic.
“Among the newly established or merged companies in Japan, there are many companies such as railway companies, steel companies, telegraph companies, and electric companies established by the Meiji government for heavy industry. They have excellent future potential, so it is no joke that the company will turn to black in the next quarter. It might be.”
Even if it turns to black, an earnings surprise will come.
It was a miracle in itself to turn into a surplus in the quarter after a huge loss, but Japan had a sufficient foundation for turning to a surplus.
“In Japan, heavy industry facilities are already being built little by little but big. The work we have to do is reduced. The time for growth has also been shortened.”
In Japan, there were originally about four new steel mills being built, including Hachiman Steel Works and Tanaka Steel Works, and this time, all of them were absorbed and merged by US capital (Bank of Japan).
It was later split and sold to Federal Steel.
Similarly, Mitsubishi Group’s Nagasaki shipyard was also owned by the Bank of Japan.
“Haha, it’s a stake purchase through the Bank of Japan Settlement. It sounds like we can pick up Japanese companies at a cheap price, almost as if we’re receiving a shipwreck. I express my gratitude.”
Rockefeller bowed lightly.
When I’m dead, I’m going to be seen by Rockefeller.
First, once the shock of the New York stock market passes, the number of companies that announce earnings surprises from the next quarter will increase exponentially.
“I think it would be perfect if we escape the rain for a while in this shock, and then go public in the next quarter with a profit and an earnings surprise.”
“Perfect.”
It sounds like it was a shock anyway.
“Now I’m thinking of moving the Federal Monetary Commission.”
“Federal Monetary Commission? Wasn’t that almost your puppet?”
Federal Monetary Commission.
Rockefeller’s point of being a puppet of the banks, at least of the Morgan family, was justified.
Although the predecessor of the Federal Reserve, it was still responsible for bailout and credit law enforcement.
This time the institution is transformed into the Fed.
“For now, I’m going to move through the Treasury rather than moving the Federal Monetary Commission directly.”
“The Ministry of Finance. The scale is not going anywhere.”
“The Treasury Department is also a spare. The New York stock market is bubbled up anyway, so if the overheating continues even in the earnings shock and big bass, the Treasury Department will catch the overheating through interest rates.”
Morgan and Rockefeller.
At first glance, the two of them and the plan I’m working on seems so vicious that I think it’s causing me panic.
However, if you look at just one layer, my prescription was more beneficial to the future of the United States and the national interest.
“The transportation index issued by the American Railroad Commission is increasing explosively at this point.”
“I heard the news too.”
“Yes, oil and coal prices are pushing prices downward for unprecedented times, and freight rates are also updating the lowest prices thanks to the establishment of the Railway Trust.”
Railroads are the bloodline of the Industrial Revolution. The news that freight rail fares are cheaper means that the volume of transportation across the United States has increased. This means that the supply chain is active.
If more quantities can be moved, mass production can be spurred, and price bargaining power is increased.
I was studying the international market.
All of these are the basis for American companies to gain an advantage over foreign companies.
“I can’t break this monopoly. If I tell McKinley that this monopoly is so good, I don’t think I’ll even listen to it.”
“Certainly thoughtful.”
“I always do business after considering the national interest of the United States. If it seems to be inconsistent with that, I think of a way to destroy it or merge it right away.”
I shrugged and Rockefeller let out a chuckle.
“That’s why I like you.”
I smiled bitterly.
“I wish the US federal government would like me even at least half as much as the president.”
***
hedge fund.
“James, issue a warning report to subsidiaries. Get out of the New York Stock Exchange immediately.”
I walked quickly to the secretary’s office.
It was the secretariat of a hedge fund that I had been entering for a long time. In fact, I even thought about taking the Wall Street Journal headquarters as the headquarters, but first I have to adapt to hedge funds.
Let’s do it brilliantly before we come back.
“Before debut, there was a panic in the New York stock market through the railroad, and I used the big bass back then too. Reminds me.”
“Detroit. Long time no see.”
quiver-
As I entered the secretary’s office, Charles Dow flew in from the Wall Street Journal to welcome me.
It was natural to have the Headquarters as a hedge fund.
“Mr. Dow.”
“I’ve heard everything from James.”
I was a little nervous.
Journalists in the US media take it as a kind of pride to speak according to their beliefs.
This is because the press is like a lighthouse of the free camp.
“I want to ask you one thing. Why aren’t you talking to President McKinley?”
“…..”
This novel was posted at https://noblemtl.com
Okay. I knew you were going to ask this question.
“I didn’t do it on purpose.”
“Why? Were you able to compromise on the antitrust laws? President McKinley is also a fairly rational person.”
rational.
be rational
not.
He is not rational at all.
“Let’s think common sense.”
“Well.”
“How much have I dedicated myself to this America so far? Don’t you know Mr. Dow, who publishes newspapers across America through the Wall Street Journal?”
“……”
Charles Dow was silent.
I answered slowly but still firmly.
“President McKinley enjoyed all that my devotion had to offer, and he was almost guaranteed re-election. He didn’t even say a word of thanks to me.”
“…It was definitely just a check.”
“Yes, a really rational person. You know how to be grateful. I didn’t mean to say hello, but at least you shouldn’t put an ax in the foot of a nobleman.”
I got a little angry.
How much I have dedicated myself to the national interest of the United States. The federal government has crossed the line.
“I will take back everything that I have enjoyed thanks to you.”
abandoned in America felt until
Charles Dow quietly placed his hand on my shoulder, feeling that my expression was unusual.
“Still, the damage to the private sector is too great.”
“Actually, the sane way is the way I’m going to do it now.”
The most ideal flow is to throw a big bass with an awning shock and catch the overheating of the game by welcoming the captain.
“The US is on the gold standard. But the US economy is booming right now. That means it’s extremely dangerous to have the economy boom without overheating.”
Deflation occurs when the U.S. economy is overwhelmingly stronger than the value of the currency issued under the gold standard.
Even if the triple factor of the low oil price and low coal low fare maintained by the Trusts is broken, it will even hit inflation.
“The moment this balance is disrupted, disaster strikes immediately.”
worst recession.
Stagflation is a phenomenon in which inflation leads to inflation.
“To get this right, we have to give up the gold standard, but the US currency has not yet secured the hegemony to support that.
“…..”
“I think that Mr. Dow, who is well versed in the economy, knows well. What a terrible disaster this is.”
this case.
A bubble is not dangerous because it bursts, but the bubble itself is dangerous. The U.S. dollar has yet to cover the size of its assets.
“That’s why we’re trying to get a new currency out of BOSS, because the BOSS currency will compensate for that until the US dollar grows.”
“A new device that has appeared has become an indispensable tool…”
“It’s not, but I guarantee that the civilian damage will be reduced by the existence of BOSS. There has never been a time when there was no damage to the civilian population. We just block it as much as possible like now.”
Ultimately, it is the result of a lack of currency.
If that’s the case, then it’s all about distributing the currency. However, it is not possible with any currency, so the spot value-based currency called BOSS was chosen.
“Do you know? It’s up to you to make a retreat.”
“…Detroit, if McKinley didn’t come out like that, how were you going to get rid of the bubble?”
I smiled.
The US Treasury had a very simple but powerful mace clanked in the closet.
It is the withdrawal of the base rate.
“The base rate must have been raised through the Ministry of Finance. In order to catch inflation by shocking the market with the base rate, in the end, you have to raise the interest rate like a shock, like crazy.”
Paul Volker.
The chairman of the Federal Reserve, famous as an inflation fighter, and stagflation, is the economic leader who caught the worst recession in U.S. history.
– The role of the central bank is to take the plates out when the party is in full swing.
He raised the US benchmark interest rate to a whopping 20%. Whether the mayor screams or the president threatens to cut you off, you will persevere to save the economy.
But in the end, this was stagflation.
“It’s unclear whether the dollar can sustain this.”
But once you panic, it’s clean.
If the next quarter produces an earnings surprise and the railroad trusts go public in holding companies, the recession will end soon.
The bailout is also well prepared.
“Certainly, if you follow what you said, it would be safer to go through a panic now.”
“It’s a drug prescription, but it’s certain.”
Besides, that’s not all.
“This panic will also raise awareness of the risks of financial institutions to the public.”
“It’s dangerous.”
“You have to show that if you get a margin call without a payout reserve, you will have a bank run.”
A healthy financial environment is necessary.
The US stock market right now is a sloppy version of wild beasts. Without rules, you can’t predict.
control is needed
At this rate, the New York Stock Exchange will periodically create panic attacks.
.
the other half?
The central bank, of course, the Federal Reserve.
“So I hope the Wall Street Journal can help me.”
I always act for the national interest.
And the Fed is the most needed financial institution in America right now.
“Mr. Dow. Before the accident in the coal mine, there was a chirping bird. Have you heard of it?”
“Is it a quiz all of a sudden?”
“Let’s guess.”
“Canary in the mine, right?”
“That’s right. It’s the bird that detects the harbinger of a gas-like danger.”
In the 21st century, when I was active, the New York Stock Exchange expressed that the canary was crying.
Whenever the harbinger of panic or shock appeared, the press didn’t riot about the canary crying.
I lifted my index finger.
“First, let’s start with the canary of the New York Stock Exchange for investors.”
***
[Pennsylvania Railroad, ‘It is expected that listing in this quarter will be difficult. Accounting audits of Japanese affiliates still remain.’]
[JP Morgan Bank, ‘BNSF and Great Northern Railroad listing are also expected to be delayed. The settlement of investments in the Qing Empire and Japan has not been finalized.’]
[NYSE, ‘The listing of the transcontinental railroad is only a hold for a more thorough value judgment. The decision is up to the investors.’]
[Hedge fund, ‘As always, always approach the stock market cautiously. It’s up to you to find out if it’s a canary’s cry or a fluorine’s paw.’]
[Hedge fund, position ‘sell’ converted.]
[Wall Street beasts, ‘Hedge funds are just cowards. The great boom was just around the corner, but I hid in a tunnel.’]
– The Wall Street Journal (WSJ)
“Hey, Jason. Take a look at this paper.”
Jason Carl Investment Bank.
Investment banking subsidiary of hedge funds.
After trimming the front of the suit, Jason was handed the newspaper that Carl was carrying.
“Boeing? I don’t see it from time to time.”
“During the semester. Didn’t he get accepted to Yale University? He left the fund with only asset management and went to Boston.”
“Oh that’s right. I forgot.”
Jason rubbed his eyelids.
Then he looked down and read the newspaper.
“Are transcontinental railroads being delayed one after another? Hedge funds switched to a short position.”
“Aren’t hedge funds famous for their conservative, safe investments? It’s not a reference.”
“Still, the sell position will not come to a certain extent…”
“But I sympathize with the bad feeling. They say that it is postponed to the fourth quarter, but the feeling is strong. Do you know what our portfolio will be like?”
“Wait a moment.”
Jason pulled a file from the bookshelf.
“I put it in a bond fund as a safe asset, I put it in a short-selling fund as a hedging, and I’m investing in a railroad fund.”
“No, Jason, wait a minute. Have you hedged 20% of your short-selling fund right now? The total amount invested in risk management is 60%?”
“Karl, risk management is not bad at any time. In my mind, I want to invest in gold, not a bond fund.”
Jason closed his eyes and remembered the year it was made.
Black Wednesday, the memory of the day when I got into Black Wednesday after collecting debts from my in-laws and investing in a railroad bubble.
Jason didn’t forget.
And from that day on, I learned terribly.
Not only the trends of Wall Street, but also the global stock market and the posture of great powers, he has expanded his gaze.
Because the flow of money and politics are never separated.
Jason now knew that.
Because of that, some of the giants he is paying attention to at this point.
Among them, he is at the center of the Bank of Japan Settlement, which brought the European powers to East Asia.
hedge fund representative.
Detroit Morgan. Jason was informed by a source that he had recently arrived in New York.
“But Jason. Look outside. The New York stock market is booming right now. Last year there was a bubble in the railroad, so I invested safely, but this time, the Japanese archipelago is supporting me.”
“Carl, let’s invest safely.”
Had it not been for the New York Stock Exchange, the tycoon would not have moved.
No, is it true that the stock market can fluctuate because the giant moved?
Jason remembers the cold wind that day.
The despair of jumping drunkenly from the Brooklyn Bridge. I promised then. I will never make risky investments again, I will make value investments.
It took a long time to get hedge funds to invest. Hedge funds focused on their hedging and safe investment techniques and were willing to invest.
Jason Carl Bank.
It is now a partner and subsidiary of a hedge fund.
“Karl, the exact value of the Japanese archipelago has not yet been determined. No matter how much I think about it, I think the listing of the transcontinental railroads was delayed because the value of the Japanese archipelago could not be judged.”
“…Huh. You, who enjoyed adventures like that, will become so conservative.”
“knife.”
“Okay. Value investing. Since I’ve listened to you, the transcontinental railroad bastards seem to have a plan.”
Carl made a sign of surrender with his hand.
tuk.
Then an envelope fell from the Wall Street Journal newspaper.
“Karl, is that?”
“Ah, you mean this. A report from the hedge fund came in, would you like to read it?”
“…it seems to be very important somehow.”
Hedge funds never gossip.
From Jason’s point of view, who has the values of value investing and safe investment, hedge fund policies and reports were like his gospel (Bible).
He had scrapped each report and kept it in a file folder.
“But why is today’s report so thin?”
Jason felt a cool sensation.
this feeling. It was like the feeling before jumping into the East River from the Brooklyn Bridge. This was a problem because the conservative report was so thin.
“……”
there is something
Jason hurriedly handed over the report.
The moment I read the first sentence, I took a deep breath.
“…..This.”
Jason read the report’s title with trembling hands.
– Time to wake up.
“…Now is the time to wake up from the boom.”
A sentence that beats the heart from the start.
The warning lights in my head were screaming loudly.
– Get out of NYSE RIGHT NOW.
“Immediately…”
gulp.
Jason swallowed.
“Escape from the New York Stock Exchange.”
beep profit-
Canary cried.
“The Canary of New York. (1) > end
